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Despite the voluminous empirical research on the potential predictability of stock returns, much less attention has been paid to the predictability of bear and bull stock markets. Probability forecasts of the state of the stock market can also be utilized to obtain optimal asset allocation decisions between stocks and bonds.
bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models. In particular, substantial additional predictive power can be obtained by allowing for a dynamic structure in the binary response model.
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